Pivot Or Persevere: The Dip

One of the most important questions to think about during tough times is “Should we pivot or persevere?”
Pivoting can be a great decision, as it takes you out of a game you can’t win, and gives you the chance to do something more valuable with your time and energy.
Persevering can be a great decision, as you push through the difficulty and reap the benefits of your labour.
Both of these come back to the same variables: what effort is required, and how great is the reward on offer?

Whenever we start anything new, like learning a language, playing an instrument, opening a shop, writing a book, starting a company etc, we generally expect it will go something like this:

However, in the majority of situations, this isn’t true.
Most projects start out optimistically – if they sounded grim we’d be unlikely to begin in the first place – but the mood soon crashes back to reality.
e.g. that rough seventh violin lesson where you still sound awful, or the new online shop with no traffic.
When these work, they can become sources of joy and satisfaction, but that point is still a fair way away.
There’s an initial success, then a plummet back to earth that remains for some time.
This is called “The Dip”.

The Dip is a tough slog - the work isn’t as fun, results have slowed down, motivation has disappeared, and you start to forget why you ever though this was a good idea.
What you’re hoping for is the payoff - the part where it gets good again.
Of course, it might not get good again.
Maybe it will end up like The Cliff - where the rewards fall away after a while.
Or maybe it’s The Cul-de-Sac, where the reward never really takes off.

This leaves you with three questions:
1. Will this get better?
It’s helpful to look into the future and make some educated guesses about whether or not there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.
What can you learn from those who have tried this before you?
Are you seeing improvement?
Are there changes you can make in order to increase the likelihood of success?

2. How long until things get better?
There might be light at the end of the tunnel, but it could be a prohibitively long way away.
What’s the investment required to reach success in this field?
What’s the time commitment?
What’s the financial commitment?
Do you have the right support around you to reach success?

3. Am I willing to go through The Dip in order to get to the good bit?
This is now a cost/benefit question: is it worthwhile?
Are you and your team willing to pay the price?
Does the reward outweigh the difficulty of the effort?

These three questions can save yourself a great deal of anguish, because you’ve accurately assessed the situation and your own appetite for difficulty.

The decision to pivot or persevere should start with the phrase “we can if…”, and involve some sort of validation metric.
e.g. we can proceed if we can find new initial customers within a month.
We can proceed if we secure $20,000 of funding by August.
We can proceed if we form a partnership with three specialists by the end of the year.
If you’re not sure, talk to someone you trust, they might have a helpful perspective.

Take some time to think about which graph you’re currently on:
The Dip, The Cliff or the Cul-De-Sac.
If it’s The Dip, the next question is “What tricks can I use to make the next few months easier?”
If it’s the other two, the question becomes “Where should I focus my time and energy next?”

Quitting for the right reasons could be one of the best decisions you make in your career.
The same goes for perseverance.
What doesn’t help is worrying about what other people will think, or the sunk cost you’ve invested so far.
If your critics aren’t helping you walk through The Dip, their opinion doesn’t matter.
The sunk costs might sting, but they’re not a reason to stick with The Cliff or The Cul de Sac.

For more on this, I highly recommend the book The Dip by Seth Godin, or any of his other titles.